Publications
An S-Frame Agenda for Behavioral Public Policy Research (with Nick Chater and George Loewenstein)
Chater and Loewenstein (2023) argue that behavioral scientists have been testing and advocating individualistic (i-frame) solutions to policy problems that have systemic (sframe) causes and require systemic solutions. Here, we consider the implications of adopting an s-frame approach for research. We argue that an s-frame approach will involve addressing different types of questions, which will, in turn, require a different toolbox of research methods.
Behavioural Public Policy, 9(3), 593–613. doi:10.1017/bpp.2024.58
Working Papers
Beliefs about Skill Decay (with Sami Horn & George Loewenstein)
Across five experiments, we investigate the accuracy of beliefs about skill decay in oneself and others. Participants consistently underestimated their own skill decay by 28% to 59% across tasks. Even after experiencing skill decay firsthand, participants still underpredicted its extent, though accuracy improved. Participants were more accurate when predicting declines in others' skills than in their own, but still underestimated decay. We find significant heterogeneity by age: older participants exhibit greater declines, but their predictions fail to account for this. Taken together, these findings reveal a consistent underestimation of skill decay, suggesting a potential for errors in human capital investment.
Available at SSRN, updated August 5, 2024
Nonconstant Forgetting Implies Increasing Consistency of Memories over Time (with George Loewenstein)
How do memories of real-life events change over time, and why do some aspects persist while others fade? We propose that two basic properties of memory - nonconstant change and differential decay across dimensions - jointly give rise to ”crystallization,” a process by which memories become increasingly stable and selected over time. Under the crystallization account, changes in all dimensions of memory occur disproportionately early, but different dimensions of memory change at different rates. Taken together, these processes lead to systematic transformations of memories over time. Across five studies, we examine how event memories evolve using the Memory Experiences Questionnaire (MEQ), a multidimensional measure that captures qualities such as: vividness, sensory detail, coherence, and emotional intensity. We find that change is concentrated in the early period following an event and that the dimensions associated with reliving—vividness, sensory detail, and coherence—decline more quickly than others. In three studies, we also find that, consistent with our account, multiple reports of the same event become more similar to each other over time. These findings extend existing theories of memory change and suggest a mechanism for the emergence of stable long-term representations from complex, multidimensional experience.
Working paper, updated November 18, 2025
A Political Psychology of Inequality
The high level of inequality of income and wealth, and outcome and opportunity, across individuals, groups, and nations, is widely and credibly regarded as among the most fundamental problems facing humanity. Yet public outrage about inequality remains surprisingly limited, even among those who are disadvantaged by it, and democracies often elect and re-elect politicians who deliver policies that exacerbate rather than reduce inequality. We argue that this disconnect arises from basic features of human social cognition which evolved for interpersonal interactions in small groups rather than for navigating the vast political, economic, and technological systems that shape contemporary life. The key features of social cognition are: (i) a focus on local notions of equality and equity between socially connected individuals, rather than across society at large; (ii) group identification, which directs attention to inequality between groups rather than ‘pure’ inequality across the broader population; and (iii) what we call an i-frame bias—a tendency to explain social outcomes, including inequality, as the product of individual behaviors, taking the system within which those individuals operate as a given. We extend our analysis to examine how the very wealthy exploit these features of social cognition to shape the political and policy landscape, and propose a “political psychology” of inequality which is analogous to the subfield of political economy in economics.
Available at SSRN, updated October 31, 2025
Work in Progress
Errors, Noise, & Partisan Difference In Voter Beliefs: Evidence and Implications (with Saurabh Bhargava)
We document a substantial degree of error, imprecision and partisan difference in beliefs about three recent major policy events in the United States. Using contemporaneous surveys of American voters during the Trump tax cuts, Biden stimulus, and the 2020 presidential election, we show that voters systematically misunderstand the effects of these major policy events on their personal welfare. We also show that the effect of partisanship is small relative to the average error in beliefs across the sample. We simulate a Bayesian spatial model in which voters receive noisy signals about candidate policies and show that noisier signals lead to less candidate convergence to the median voter.
Conference talk, Second International Behavioral Public Policy Conference, September 3, 2023
Poster, presented at the Behavioral Models of Politics Conference, May 29, 2024
Argument Visualization Improves Comprehension & Persuasive Effects of Economic Arguments (with Danny Oppenheimer & Simon Cullen)
We show via a series of online experiments that argument visualization (a novel diagramming technique from philosophy) improves people's comprehension of explanations of economic policies. It also improves participants' comprehension or arguments for and against those policies and changes evaluations of the intelligence of these arguments. We are currently investigating the effects of argument visualization on argument persuasiveness.
Poster, presented at the Society for Judgement and Decision Making Annual Conference, November 20, 2023
Differential Memory Decay Over Information Types Shapes Beliefs Over Time (with George Loewenstein)
In a series of online experiments, we find that people have better memory for a single written review of a product than they do for the number of total positive reviews of the product. As a result, while people are able to form an accurate belief about the product's quality when both signals are presented simultaneously, their beliefs move in the direction of the written review after a one-day delay.